(c) 2015 by Barton Paul Levenson
So, if global warming is this much of a threat--and it is--what can we do about it? Sorry for borrowing Lenin's famous title, but if the old Commie wants to sue me from beyond the grave, have at it, Vladimir Ilyich.
Here's an equation for how much carbon dioxide is in the air in a given year:
|C = C0 + SN + f E - DN - DA||(1)|
|C||Total CO2 in the atmosphere (kg)|
|C0||CO2 the previous year (kg)|
|SN||Natural CO2 emissions to the atmosphere (kg)|
|f||CO2 intensity of energy production*|
|E||Total energy production|
|DN||Natural CO2 drawdown from the atmosphere (kg)|
|DA||Artificial CO2 drawdown from the atmosphere (kg)|
So what are reasonable values for these figures? I'll spare you the math by which I calculated C0, save that it was based on 400 ppmv CO2.
|Term||Value c. 2015||Source|
|C0||3.13 x 1015 kg||me|
|SN||7.70 x 1014 kg||Wikipedia|
|f times E||3.74 x 1013 kg||CO2now.org|
|DN||7.89 x 1014 kg||Wikipedia|
Working it out with these figures and equation (1), I find the CO2 level next year should be about 3.15 x 1015 kg, for an increase of 0.6%
So What Is To Be Done? We can't have much effect on C0, SN, or DN. If we are to avoid disaster in a few years, we need to lower C. We can do that by lowering f, lowering E, lowering their product, and/or increasing DA. Lowering f is a matter of suppressing fossil fuels and increasing renewables. Lowering E depends on conservation and stabilizing our population. Increasing DN could happen through biochar, carbon sequestration, or exotic techniques to draw CO2 directly out of the air.
Chances of that happening in time? I'm not optimistic.