What Is To Be Done?

So, if global warming is this much of a threat--and it is--what can we do about it? Sorry for borrowing Lenin's famous title, but if the old Commie wants to sue me from beyond the grave, have at it, Vladimir Ilyich.

Here's an equation for how much carbon dioxide is in the air in a given year:

C = C₀ + S_N + f E - D_N - D_A (1)

Term	Meaning
C	Total CO₂ in the atmosphere (kg)
C₀	CO₂ the previous year (kg)
S_N	Natural CO₂ emissions to the atmosphere (kg)
f	CO₂ intensity of energy production*
E	Total energy production
D_N	Natural CO₂ drawdown from the atmosphere (kg)
D_A	Artificial CO₂ drawdown from the atmosphere (kg)

*Ignoring or incorporating effects from cement production and deforestation.

So what are reasonable values for these figures? I'll spare you the math by which I calculated C₀, save that it was based on 400 ppmv CO₂.

Term	Value c. 2015	Source
C₀	3.13 x 10¹⁵ kg	me
S_N	7.70 x 10¹⁴ kg	Wikipedia
f times E	3.74 x 10¹³ kg	CO2now.org
D_N	7.89 x 10¹⁴ kg	Wikipedia
D_A	0 kg	me

Working it out with these figures and equation (1), I find the CO₂ level next year should be about 3.15 x 10¹⁵ kg, for an increase of 0.6%

So What Is To Be Done? We can't have much effect on C₀, S_N, or D_N. If we are to avoid disaster in a few years, we need to lower C. We can do that by lowering f, lowering E, lowering their product, and/or increasing D_A. Lowering f is a matter of suppressing fossil fuels and increasing renewables. Lowering E depends on conservation and stabilizing our population. Increasing D_N could happen through biochar, carbon sequestration, or exotic techniques to draw CO₂ directly out of the air.

Chances of that happening in time? I'm not optimistic.

Page created:	02/13/2015
Last modified:	02/13/2015
Author:	BPL